Analyzing Man City’s historic losing streak: statistics, Rodri, and Guardiola’s prospects

Pep Guardiola’s body language was telling as he faced what could be his toughest spell since his first transitional season at Manchester City.

Well before Joao Pedro’s 77th-minute equalizer sparked Brighton’s comeback, Guardiola had been pacing and kneeling at the sideline, his expression a mixture of frustration and concern. This 2-1 loss marked City’s fourth consecutive defeat – a first for Guardiola’s managerial career, which has never seen him endure four straight losses in regular time. The defeat left City trailing Premier League leaders Liverpool by five points, amplifying pressure on Guardiola and raising questions about his team’s trajectory.

Arriving at the Amex Stadium for a high-intensity showdown, Guardiola’s anxiety was evident from kickoff, which only grew as Matt O’Riley broke through City’s weakened defense to score Brighton’s late winner, just seven minutes from full time. At the final whistle, Guardiola engaged in an intense, animated exchange with Brighton’s Jan Paul van Hecke, leaving the defender visibly puzzled by the City manager’s pointed remarks.

City’s issues are apparent both offensively and defensively, highlighting an unusual decline in form. In attack, their average goals per game have dropped from 2.53 last season to two this season, despite an increase in shots on goal from 18.5 to 19.6. Haaland’s influence has grown, but the team’s big-chance conversion has dipped from 38% to 29.8%, suggesting they’re struggling to finish their chances.

Defensively, City are now conceding an average of 1.17 goals per game, compared to 0.92 last season, and they are facing more shots per game. This latest defeat was City’s first loss in a Premier League match where they led at halftime since May 2021, which also happened to be away at Brighton.

With scrutiny mounting and Guardiola’s dynasty under question, the coming games will be pivotal in determining whether this is a temporary setback or a sign of deeper issues for City.

Have teams found a weakness down City’s right?

BBC Sport

Pep Guardiola is now navigating his toughest spell at Manchester City since his early days, facing a rare sense of vulnerability in his side. Brighton’s Kaoru Mitoma provided a stark illustration of City’s current defensive fragility, recording the most touches in City’s box (six) and making the most final-third passes (13) for his team.

City’s weaknesses were laid bare at the Amex Stadium, where Brighton’s relentless pressure down City’s right exposed cracks. Kyle Walker, at 34, struggled to contain Mitoma and later substitute Joao Pedro, as Brighton exploited that flank, with 44.9% of their attacks targeted there. Although Rico Lewis has stepped in for Walker at times this season, his tendency to drift into midfield often leaves the right exposed, and with Savinho posted further up the right wing, Walker frequently found himself unsupported.

The absence of Rodri, sidelined with a knee ligament injury, has further intensified City’s woes. Rodri’s shielding presence has proven irreplaceable, as reflected in City’s stats since the start of last season: with Rodri, City has won 73.6% of games, but without him, that figure drops to 58.3%. The midfield looks more disjointed, and the team’s pressing is noticeably less cohesive. Former City defender Micah Richards remarked that City’s pressing is less effective, and without their “best midfielder in Europe,” it’s “too easy to play through them.” Jamie Redknapp echoed this, noting that Rodri’s presence might have prevented this four-game losing streak.

Beyond on-field issues, Guardiola faces challenges off the pitch. Key players like Kevin de Bruyne, Ruben Dias, and Jack Grealish have missed games due to injuries, adding strain. Guardiola’s future is also a talking point, with his contract expiring in June and rumors circulating about interest from other clubs. Director of football Txiki Begiristain, a trusted ally, is also set to depart, potentially affecting club dynamics.

City, accustomed to dominating the league, find themselves trailing Liverpool by five points after 11 games. Although City have come from behind before, like they did two seasons ago against Arsenal, their current form has raised doubts. Liverpool are only the sixth team to hold a five-point lead at this stage in Premier League history, and previous teams in such a position—including Liverpool in 2019-20—have all gone on to win the league.

Nonetheless, Guardiola has proven time and again that he can steer City out of trouble. With a pivotal matchup against Liverpool on December 1, City will need to dig deep to end their slump and reassert their place at the top.

SOURCE: BBC

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