A recent field poll by Global InfoAnalytics, conducted two months before the December 2024 elections, shows National Democratic Congress (NDC) presidential candidate John Dramani Mahama (JDM) leading with 51.1% of the votes. The New Patriotic Party (NPP) candidate, Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB), follows with 37.3%, while independent candidates Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen (AKK) and Nana Kwame Bediako have 4.1% and 6.2%, respectively. Other candidates received 1.3%, according to the weighted committed voters’ model.
In the likely voters’ model (unweighted), Mahama stands at 49.3%, Bawumia at 35.9%, Kyerematen at 3.9%, Bediako at 6.0%, others at 1.4%, and 3.5% of voters remain undecided. The survey suggests that the election may not go to a runoff, as Mahama averages 53% across the year, compared to Bawumia’s 36%, Kyerematen’s 7%, and Bediako’s 3%.
Voter apathy could pose a challenge for the NPP, with 16% of those who say they won’t vote being NPP supporters. Among floating voters, Mahama leads Bawumia by 54% to 23%, giving him a significant 31-point advantage. Additionally, Mahama leads among first-time voters and those who declined to reveal their party affiliations.
The poll highlights a decline in Bawumia’s support among Muslims, a key demographic for his campaign, with a drop of nearly 4% from July to October 2024. Among first-time voters, Mahama leads with 46%, followed by Bawumia at 38%. In the crucial regions, Mahama now leads in 12, an increase from the July poll, including Greater Accra, Central, and Bono regions. Bawumia leads in Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East regions, but struggles to meet the NPP’s target of 85% support in Ashanti as Nana Kwame Bediako gains momentum.
SOURCE: https://dew360.net
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